PHOENIX Housing Market: 50% CRASH in 2021-22?

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The Phoenix, Arizona housing market is one of the hottest in the country in 2021. Home prices have shot up by 25% year over year and are now at their highest levels ever. Home buyers and real estate investors in Phoenix, as well as surrounding cities like Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, and Gilbert - are getting priced out of the market. With prices so high today - could a 50% crash in Phoenix's real estate be on the horizon?

Phoenix's Housing Market is one of the most volatile in the US, going through real estate BOOMs and BUSTS. The Period from 2001-06 was a notable boom, with price going up by more than 2x in that span. But the subsequent five years - during the US Housing Collapse - was a notable bust. Prices in Phoenix declined by an astronomical -57% through 2011.

This turbulent history has many concerned that Phoenix will face a similar decline in 2021-22 with home prices now at their highest levels ever. And frothy behavior in the market such as home flipping and speculation occurring once again.

On one hand Phoenix looks more secure in 2021 than it did in 2006 due to a much lower amount of new home and apartment construction. The permitting for single family homes in Phoenix over the last 12 months is about 40% lower than the previous peak before the last crash. This means it's less likely Phoenix will run into a true housing glut.

But like it was in the past Phoenix is still reliant on significant amounts of inward migration to propel it's real estate market. While migration is great for home and multifamily demand in the short-term, in the long-run it can destabilize these markets if the migration trend abates.

All told - Phoenix is still a risky market to buy real estate in 2021. But it presents a more secure investment profile today, so another -50% price decline is unlikely. But something like a 20% correction? That's a possibility.

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0:00 Phoenix: the #1 Request
1:14 Volatile Housing Market!
3:39 2021 Housing Shortage? or Housing Glut?
6:50 -50% Decline in Prices? Unlikely
8:21 250 People Per Day Moving to Phoenix
11:30 BE CAREFUL buying in Phoenix
13:45 BEST v. WORST Appreciation ZIPs
15:39 High Poverty ZIPs are Risky!
17:32 Age: Another Factor to Consider

#PhoenixHousingMarket #Phoenix #HousingCrash

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